“Mainly for estates without a pre-sale certificate.”
One week after the introduction of the “Seven Articles of Shanghai”, the sales of Shanghai’s real estate market plummeted.

On November 18, Jinfeng Yiju & U-Right Joint Research Center released monitoring data: last week (November 11-November 17), the transaction area of newly-built commercial residential buildings in Shanghai was 259,400 square meters, with a month-on-month (compared with the previous week) decrease of 36.20%; the average transaction price was RMB 24,779/ square meter, an month-on-month increase of 1.53%; the newly-added supply area was 220,700 square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 55.25%.

The marketing director of a housing company in Shanghai said, “the ‘Seven Articles of Shanghai’ has further restrictions on house purchase qualifications and the proportion of down payment for second houses, which has a certain impact on house buyers with rigid demand or for improvement purpose. What’s worse, the weather is becoming cooler, so the market has recently started to cool as well.”

Since November, Shanghai’s real estate market turnover has increased by 51.3%.

“The trend of high decline of turnover during this year has been defined.” Huang Zhijian, executive director of U-Right Institution, said that the trend of high turnover in early November is difficult to continue during this year.

Due to the high turnover at the beginning of the month, the total turnover of Shanghai’s real estate market has not been low since November.

According to the statistics of U-Right and real estate in the 21st Century, as of November 17, the cumulative transaction area of newly-built commercial houses in Shanghai in November was 759,600 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 51.3%, and a 23.3% increase compared to the same period in October. U-Right predicts that the actual turnover of Shanghai’s real estate market in November will be around 1.3 million square meters.

Lu Qilin, CRO of Deovolente Realty, believes that after the transaction peak caused by the last bus effect of the policy in the week before, the impact of the “Seven Articles of Shanghai” issued last week began to gradually embody. In addition, at the end of the year, the real estate market will face tightening of loans and other factors. Hesitating attitude will spread around the real market, and it is expected that the transaction in the real estate market will gradually slow down in the short term.

The property market transactions showed signs of weakness last weekend.

According to the statistics of Shanghai Centaline and Deovolente Realty, the turnover of newly-built commercial residential buildings in Shanghai fell back to nearly 260,000 square meters last week, which is the first time in recent six weeks that the turnover of Shanghai’s property market has fallen below 300,000 square meters. Among them, the impact on high-priced real estate is quite obvious. Last week, 80 houses with a unit price in Shanghai of more than RMB 50,000 were sold, 37 fewer than last week.

Industry and commerce strictly investigate illegal promotion.

At the same time, the newly-increased supply of the Shanghai property market has also shown the trend of falling.

Deovolente Realty said that the newly-increased supply of 220,700 square meters of newly-built commercial residential buildings in Shanghai last week was the lowest point in the recent nine weeks.

By comparison, according to the real estate statistics of the 21st century, in the first 17 days of November, Shanghai added a total of 904,000 square meters of new houses, which was 3.3 times the same period last year.

The aforementioned marketing director of the Shanghai real estate company said that with the introduction of the “Seven Articles of Shanghai” and the tightening of the pre-sale certificate issuance (for details, see version A37 “Pre-sales Certificate Tightening” of Some Districts and Counties in Shanghai in morning paper on November 15) . It is expected that most developers’ marketing work this year is about to enter the final stage. “At most until the beginning of December, real estate that wants to be sold can only hurry up in this period of time, and then the market will basically end. It is time to plan for next year.”

He also mentioned that recently, the industrial and commercial departments in many districts and counties are strictly examining the promotion of real estate, mainly targeting at those that have begun to be promoted without obtaining a pre-sale certificate. According to regulations, real estate without a pre-sale certificate is not allowed to carry out external promotion, let alone to collect any money from buyers.”

According to the marketing director, in the past, some real estates would have accumulated some potential customers before obtaining the pre-sale certificate, and would open soon after the pre-sale certificate was obtained. However, this kind of marketing that does not collect some earnest money, but dispense numbers cannot capture customers, which has no effect. “Recently, this area has been strictly checked. These real estate can only be used to receive some on-site customer consultation.”

The marketing director said that other violations that were explicitly prohibited by the “Seven Articles of Shanghai” were also strictly investigated.

In his view, regulators did so mainly to release signals to tell developers that they must act in accordance with regulations at the end of the year, thus controlling the market.

However, some developers have stated that the supervision of the promotion of real estate has always been strict. Before obtaining the pre-sale certificate, the real estate cannot generally be advertised. “Maybe there will be another wave of inspections in some districts and counties recently.”

The “Seven Articles of Shanghai” issued on November 8 put forward the need to strengthen supervision of the real estate market. “Strictly implement ‘one house, one price’, clearly mark the price, record and manage commercial housing sales and other regulations. Strengthen the real estate brokerage market governance work, strictly investigate and deal with various types of illegal acts such as fraudulent purchases and tax fraud, and expose the illegal acts.”

At the end of the year, more real estates have entered the property market.

Under the influence of multiple factors, all parties have shown differences about the judgment of the trend of housing prices during the year.

Lu Qilin believes that the current home buyers in Shanghai have less aspiration for bullish market. At the end of the year, under the influence of policies, loans, supply and demand and other factors, the rate of house price rise is likely to slow down.

The General Manager of a listed real estate company also believes that house prices will not change much in the short term, and developers will not reduce prices when sales tasks have been completed.

He predicts that the turnover of the Shanghai property market will gradually shrink. From a market perspective, the recent decline in turnover is related to the lack of new supply. From a policy perspective, the further tightening of the “Seven Articles of Shanghai” on house purchase qualifications and the proportion of down payment for second houses has also made some buyers unable to enter the market. “But this does not mean that the market’s buying enthusiasm has declined, and the proportion of people with hesitating attitude will not be very high. Because the purpose of hesitation is to wait for prices to fall, such expectations are not so strong at present. ”

Huang Hetao, a real estate analyst in the 21st century, judges that a large number of low- and mid-price listings will enter the market at the end of the year, which can drive transactions in houses of rigid demand and support the overall turnover of the property market on the one hand; and can also reduce the overall average transaction prices on the other hand.

According to real estate statistics in the 21st century, the supply-to-sales ratio (new supply / turnover) of new houses in Shanghai last week was 0.85. After a lapse of 3 weeks, it returned to below 1. Among them, the medium and low-end sections with the highest quotations of below RMB 30,000 /square meter increased the supply by 159,000 square meters, accounting for 72% of the total new supply.